Bold claim: Inflation expectations hold steady, even as households brace for tougher finances and higher medical costs. The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, highlighting that Americans’ short-, medium-, and long-term views on inflation did not budge. At the same time, concerns about medical cost growth reached the highest level since early 2014, suggesting a mounting squeeze on budgets despite any visible gains in the job market. The fieldwork spanned November 1–30, 2025.
Key takeaways from the November 2025 results:
Inflation
- The median inflation outlook remained unchanged at 3.2% for the one-year horizon and held at 3.0% for both the three-year and five-year horizons. The dispersion of expectations (the gap between the 75th and 25th percentiles) narrowed across all horizons, indicating a tighter range of views among households.
- Inflation uncertainty stayed the same for the one-year and three-year views and declined for the five-year outlook.
- Home price growth expectations stayed put at a median of 3.0% for six straight months.
- Expected year-ahead changes in prices for various goods rose modestly: food up 0.2 percentage points to 5.9%, gasoline up 0.6 points to 4.1%, medical care costs up 0.7 points to 10.1% (the highest since the series began), college costs up 0.2 points to 8.4%, and rent up 1.1 points to 8.3%. The medical-cost reading marks the peak since January 2014.
Labor Market
- The median view on earnings growth over the coming year remained at 2.6%.
- The average expectation that unemployment will be higher a year from now fell by 0.4 percentage point to 42.1%.
- The average perceived risk of job loss in the next 12 months eased by 0.2 percentage point to 13.8%, the lowest since December 2024. The average quit rate expectation also declined by 1.1 percentage points to 17.7%, the lowest since February 2025.
- The likelihood of securing a new job within three months if current employment is lost rose by 0.5 percentage point to 47.3%, though it remains below the trailing 12-month average of 49.8%.
Household Finance
- The median expectation for income growth in the next year nudged up to 2.9% from 2.8%, matching the trailing-12-month average.
- Median nominal spending growth expectations edged higher to 5.0%.
- Perceived credit access compared with a year ago deteriorated: fewer households expect easier credit a year from now, even as expectations for future credit availability stayed largely flat.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose to 13.7%, a touch above the trailing 12-month average of 13.3%.
- The median expectation for a year-ahead change in taxes at current income levels increased to 4.1%, the highest since June 2024, with broad-based gains across age, education, and income groups.
- The median expectation for year-ahead growth in government debt rose to 9.2%, the highest since July 2024.
- The average belief that savings-account interest rates will be higher in 12 months fell to 24.1%.
- Perceptions about current financial well-being worsened: more respondents reported their households were worse off than a year ago, and fewer reported being better off. Expectations for financial well-being a year from now also declined slightly.
- The mean probability that stock prices will be higher in 12 months dipped by 1.0 percentage point to 37.9%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE tracks how households anticipate inflation and price movements for essentials such as food, energy, housing, and education, alongside expectations for earnings, spending, credit access, and financial stability. It also gauges uncertainty around these outlooks and provides breakdowns by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE relies on a nationally representative, internet-based panel of about 1,200 household heads who participate for up to 12 months, with new respondents rotating in and out each month. This panel design makes it possible to observe how the same individuals’ expectations and behaviors evolve over time, rather than comparing independent cross-sections.
For more details on methodology, FAQs, interactive chart guides, and the full survey instrument, please visit the New York Fed’s SCE resources:
- Overview of methodology
- FAQs
- Interactive chart guides
- Public questionnaire
If you’d like, this rewritten summary can be tailored for a specific audience (e.g., investors, students, or general readers) or expanded with practical implications and examples. Would you prefer a version that includes potential implications for household budgeting or a deeper dive into how the rising medical-cost expectations could influence consumption patterns?
