Baseball's Unsung Skill: Unlocking the Times Through the Order Penalty (TTOP)
Image credit: © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
On July 3, 2024, a fascinating battle unfolded between Mitchell Parker and Francisco Lindor. Parker struck out Lindor in the first inning with a four-seam and three splitters. But the story doesn't end there. In their subsequent encounters, Lindor's adjustments became a key focus.
In the third inning, Parker needed six pitches to get Lindor out, mixing in a curveball. The fifth inning brought a twist as Lindor, having seen Parker's arsenal, launched a curveball into the Mets' bullpen for a two-run homer. This ability to adapt is the essence of TTOP.
Lindor's 2024 season showcased the most significant improvement in this skill, akin to the TTOP for pitchers. But here's the intriguing part: it's not just about familiarity; it's a skill that's as consistent as a hitter's BABIP and positively linked to overall hitting prowess and plate discipline.
This revelation emerged from a conversation with Davy Andrews of FanGraphs. My earlier research suggested that the TTOP for pitchers was mainly due to familiarity, not fatigue. But Davy posed a brilliant question: if familiarity is key, shouldn't hitters vary in their ability to 'learn' pitchers? And if so, what other skills might this TTOP skill be linked to?
It's a question that, in hindsight, seems obvious. To find the answer, a slight adjustment to my model was made. The model predicted plate appearance outcomes based on various factors, including batter, pitcher, and pitch quality. This time, I added a batter-specific TTOP adjustment, controlling for other variables.
The results? Lindor topped the leaderboard for the 2024 season, showing a 0.027 expected wOBA improvement the third time through. He was followed by elite hitters like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Michael Toglia, and Corey Seager, known for their exceptional plate discipline.
The correlation between TTOP skill and plate discipline is expected, as both involve rapid visual processing. But the strong link to OPS and DRC+ is intriguing. While some correlation is logical, the predictive power of OPS and DRC+ for TTOP skill in the following season is notable.
TTOP skill reveals a hidden aspect of hitting excellence. It's not just about physical attributes; it's the ability to process information and adjust mid-swing. Measuring a hitter's tools is valuable, but capturing their full value, akin to StuffPro for pitchers, remains a challenge due to the mental aspect of hitting.
Interestingly, TTOP skill shows similar year-to-year correlation as BABIP, suggesting batters have some control. However, the year-to-year stability of TTOP for pitchers is almost non-existent, contrary to expectations. Despite the arsenal's impact on batter familiarity, specific pitcher effects were elusive, leaving a puzzle for further exploration.
Lindor's 2024 season included six instances of hitting home runs off pitchers after striking out in the first at-bat, proving that adaptability is a powerful weapon in baseball.
Note: [1] expwoba ~ 1 + PitchPro + (1|tto) + (1+tto|batter) + (1+tto|pitcher) + (1|hometeam) + (1|pitching_team) - a model capturing the complexity of TTOP.
The Art of Adaptation:
Baseball is a game of adjustments, and the TTOP skill highlights the importance of adaptability. But is this skill innate or can it be taught? Share your thoughts on whether this ability is a natural talent or a learnable technique. And if it's teachable, what training methods could enhance a player's TTOP skill?
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