Imagine betting your entire career on a single decision. That's essentially what MLB players face when offered a qualifying offer (QO). Usually, accepting is a rarity, a sign of uncertainty. But this year? Something shifted. Four players bucked the trend, accepting their QOs, sending ripples through the free agency market. But why? And who benefits the most? Let's dive in.
Historically, accepting a QO is like willingly stepping into quicksand. Before 2025, out of 144 players presented with a QO, a mere 14 – about 10% – took the plunge. In fact, the past two off-seasons saw only ONE player, Reds pitcher Nick Martinez, accept. This highlights just how uncommon it is. Players typically believe they can secure a more lucrative, long-term deal on the open market. So, what made this year so different?
The four players – Gleyber Torres, Trent Grisham, Shota Imanaga, and Brandon Woodruff – each had unique circumstances influencing their decisions. Let's break it down:
Gleyber Torres: After a stellar first half of 2025, earning an All-Star nod with the Tigers, Torres' performance dipped significantly. His batting average plummeted to .229 over the final three months. He hit just seven home runs in 73 games. The QO, while offering a solid one-year salary, also allowed him to avoid having draft-pick compensation attached to him this year, which could have scared off potential suitors. By accepting, he essentially gets a 'do-over' in free agency next year, without the draft-pick baggage. He's betting on himself to have a stronger 2026 season.
Trent Grisham: Grisham had a career-best year with the Yankees, smashing 34 home runs and driving in 74 runs, with an impressive .812 OPS. But here's where it gets controversial... Was this a fluke? Teams might have hesitated to give up valuable draft picks for a player with a limited track record of consistent high performance. The QO offered him security and another chance to prove his worth to the Yankees and the league before hitting free agency again. The Yankees now get another year of a player who could be a star – or a liability. It's a calculated risk on both sides.
Shota Imanaga: Imanaga's situation with the Cubs was particularly intriguing. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57 million option, and Imanaga then rejected a $15 million player option for 2026. By accepting the QO, he'll earn $7.025 million MORE than he would have under the option, without the draft-pick compensation handicap. And this is the part most people miss... His performance also saw a significant decline towards the end of the season, with a 5.17 ERA in his final 12 starts. This likely factored into his decision, as teams might have been wary of offering a long-term deal based on that recent performance. Did the Cubs make the right move, though? Time will tell!
Brandon Woodruff: Woodruff's decision to return to the Brewers, the only team he's ever played for, seems driven by injury concerns. While he pitched well in 2025 (7-2 with a 3.20 ERA), a lat strain cut his season short in September. His recent injury history likely made teams hesitant to commit to a multi-year contract. Accepting the QO provides him with guaranteed money and the opportunity to prove he's healthy and can still be a dominant pitcher. But is he truly healthy? That's the million-dollar question.
So, which acceptance was the most surprising? Arguably, Woodruff's. He showed his shoulder had recovered from 2024 surgery, but with a crowded free-agent pitching market, his choice to take the guaranteed $22.025 million (plus the $10 million buyout from his declined player option, totaling $32.025 million through 2026) was unexpected. Yes, his 2025 numbers were strong (top 10% in strikeout and walk percentage), but his fastball velocity was down, averaging 93 mph compared to 96 mph pre-surgery. Was he prioritizing guaranteed money over a potentially larger, longer-term deal? It seems so.
Least surprising? Grisham. Despite his breakout 2025 season, it felt like an outlier. His 34 home runs were double his previous high, and his .812 OPS was his best since the shortened 2020 season. Ironically, his numbers at Yankee Stadium (.195/.326/.376, 13 homers) were worse than on the road (.269/.367/.537, 21 homers). The industry consensus was that while Grisham could have gotten more than $22.025 million in guaranteed money on the open market, securing a multi-year deal with a comparable average annual value, especially with draft-pick compensation attached, would have been tough.
Now, the burning question: Which free agents benefit most from these QO acceptances? The elite starters (Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai, Michael King, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, and Zac Gallen) would command top dollar regardless. But with Woodruff and Imanaga off the market, second-tier starters like Merrill Kelly, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Mahle, and Zack Littell have fewer competitors for contracts. Similarly, Grisham's decision removes the top (or second, depending on your view of Cody Bellinger) center-field option, boosting the value of free agents like Harrison Bader and Cedric Mullins.
Finally, which team is happiest with the outcome? Probably the Cubs or Brewers. Both were likely targeting starting pitching. Even with Imanaga, Chicago might still add another starter to their rotation. The Brewers secure Woodruff, slotting him alongside Freddy Peralta and Jacob Misiorowski. Woodruff's return also opens the door for a Peralta trade, given his relatively affordable $8 million salary, making him an attractive frontline option.
What do you think? Did these players make the right decisions? Will any of these acceptances backfire? And which free agent is poised to cash in the most? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
