Zambia's Strategic Crossroads: Navigating Great Power Competition
In a world where geopolitical rivalries are intensifying, Zambia finds itself at a critical juncture. As it strives for development and sovereignty, the nation must carefully navigate the competing interests of global powers like China, the European Union (EU), and the United States. This diplomatic dance is a delicate balance, and Zambia's choices will shape its future.
The Great Power Courtship
Recent events in Southern Africa have put Zambia in the spotlight. While the G20 Summit in South Africa captured global attention, Zambia became a key player in a power struggle between Beijing, Brussels, and Washington. Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Zambia sealed a $1.4 billion deal to revitalize the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), a vital link for Zambia's mineral wealth to reach global markets.
But that's not all. Zambia is also being wooed by the EU's Global Gateway agenda, which promises $2.3 billion for sustainable development in the Lobito Corridor. And Washington is offering a $1.5 billion, five-year health partnership to boost disease prevention and health services.
A Strategic Awakening
This sudden diplomatic interest highlights Zambia's rising strategic importance. It's a chance for the nation to advance its development and foreign policy goals while safeguarding its sovereignty. However, this opportunity comes with challenges, especially in balancing infrastructure-led growth with environmental stewardship and sustainable development.
Each power brings its own agenda. While all are drawn to Zambia's mineral wealth, their approaches differ. China showcases its infrastructure prowess, the EU emphasizes sustainability and governance, and the US values its money's worth. This moment presents a unique lens to explore how Zambia, a geopolitically weaker state, can manage these complexities and mitigate the risks of superpower rivalry.
The TAZARA Project: A Symbol of China's Presence
The TAZARA project, dating back to the 1970s, embodies China's infrastructural diplomacy in Zambia. This railway, a relic of the Cold War, has become a critical artery for copper and cobalt exports from Africa's second-largest copper producer. It passes through Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, connecting Zambia's minerals to global markets with Chinese financing and oversight.
Over two decades, China has solidified its presence in Zambia by building airports, acquiring mines, and financing infrastructure. TAZARA is more than a transit route; it symbolizes Beijing's industrial vision, ensuring Zambia's mineral resources flow on China's terms. This project is crucial for China's efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains for its growing tech industries, including its electric vehicle sector, keeping Zambia within its Belt and Road Initiative.
However, this partnership comes with environmental concerns. Recent chemical spillages linked to Chinese operations have contaminated Zambian rivers, highlighting the tension between infrastructure growth and environmental sustainability. Zambia must address this issue to protect its communities and natural assets.
Geopolitical Competition and the Lobito Corridor
The push to revitalize TAZARA and the Lobito Corridor has gained momentum in the last four years as geopolitical competition heated up. TAZARA's revamp follows the US-led Lobito Corridor Project, launched less than five years ago, which was reinforced by former President Joe Biden's 2024 visit to Angola. This visit underscored Washington's strategic interest in connecting the Central African Copperbelt to the Atlantic.
Li Qian's visit prompted the US Embassy to remind Zambians that Washington had previously rehabilitated TAZARA, which had become 'prematurely decrepit'.
In a post-US Agency for International Development era, Washington has recalibrated its engagement, moving towards strategic partnerships. The $1.5 billion, five-year grant to support Zambia's health sector, despite a $50 million aid cut over corruption charges, demonstrates Washington's commitment to soft power.
The EU's Alternative Paradigm
The EU's involvement in the Lobito Corridor offers a different approach. It emphasizes transparency, governance reforms, and sustainable investment standards. At the November EU-Lobito Corridor Business Forum in Lusaka, Zambian and European leaders focused on building partnerships in energy, agriculture, and local mineral value addition, seen as vital for Zambia's future.
While the EU's approach may not match the scale and speed of China and the US, it aligns with global demands for responsible investment. This governance-first model could position the EU as a key normative actor in Zambia's development.
Emerging Powers and Zambia's Choices
Lusaka faces a myriad of choices, including emerging powers like Israel and Qatar, which have shown interest in investing in Zambia. Global banks and African business leaders are also part of the mix. Zambia must shape the terms of engagement and avoid being swept up in great-power competition.
The smartest foreign policy path for Zambia is strategic hedging. It should keep its options open, striking deals that benefit the nation, from industrial growth and job creation to stronger environmental safeguards, without becoming dependent on any single partner.
A Bright Economic Outlook
Zambia's positive external interest is driven by its removal from the default list by S&P Global Ratings, which upgraded its credit rating due to progress in debt restructuring, better fiscal discipline, and growing investor confidence. The nation's economic growth is projected to exceed 6% in 2026, driven by mining and agriculture, supported by increased copper production and efforts to diversify the economy. However, it must recover from a climate-induced energy crisis that has negatively impacted economic development.
A Strategic Opportunity and Responsibility
For Zambia, these overlapping interests present a rare strategic opportunity and a heightened responsibility. Its pivotal geographic position, equidistant from the Atlantic and Indian oceans, combined with a connected regional transport system, rich mineral endowment, and a track record of peace and stability, puts Zambia in a unique position to negotiate terms that enhance local value addition, technology transfer, and environmental protection.
President Hichilema's Foreign Policy Pillars
President Hakainde Hichilema's foreign policy is built on two pillars: peace, security, and stability; and economic diplomacy. Lusaka must integrate a clear national development strategy into its foreign policy, defining its strategic interests based on the current context. This involves coordinating and strengthening foreign engagements through key ministries like foreign affairs and international trade, similar to South Asian models.
Navigating the Currents
To navigate these shifting geopolitical currents, Zambia must take the best from each partner. It should leverage Chinese infrastructure financing, insist on governance and sustainability in line with EU standards, and integrate the health and social investments offered by the US. This approach will allow Lusaka to advance its national priorities and safeguard its ecological and societal well-being.
The Impact of Global Power Competition
Zambia's ability to balance external interests and channel them towards its priorities will determine whether global power competition becomes a catalyst for resilient, inclusive development or leads to new vulnerabilities. It's a delicate dance, and Zambia's steps will shape its future.
David Willima, Researcher, Maritime, ISS Pretoria
Zenge Simakoloyi, Research Officer, Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS
